What a weekend for Birdman! First, the Producers Guild, then the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) -- everyone seems to be lining up to honor Alejandro Iñárritu's film in the month leading up to the Oscars. But does that mean the race is over? The math suggests it is not.
Over the past ten years, the Directors Guild is the most accurate Best Picture predictor. I give the Producers Guild half credit for last year's tie between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. And the BAFTAs (which, like the DGAs, have not yet occurred) are also more accurate than the SAGs.