Putin the Improviser

This essay can't be correct. Fox News told me that Putin was a real leader who was playing Chess while Obama played checkers.

"Mr. Putin may be living “in another world,” as German Chancellor Angela Merkel reportedly suggested to President Barack Obama —but in our world, which Mr. Putin is busily remaking, he seems to think that keeping his opponents guessing and off-balance is an end in itself. "It's really not that difficult to throw off Obama nevertheless, the white flag holders in Europe.

"Why on Earth would Moscow want to take over a money pit like Crimea at a time of slowing economic growth and plunging oil prices?"Oil prices didn't plunge until several months after the Russian takeover of Crimea. If you want use to trust your opinions, at least get your facts straight.

Mr. Weiss reports that Putin improvises. Improvising suggest that one is at a disadvantage. Lest we forget, the adolescence of chess is Persian and perfected by the Russians. The west is in the game but on the defense. Iran and Russia are several moves ahead and anticipating our every move. Look at Putins face as pictured above. Does he look like he is improvising? Or contemplating his next move.

Whether Putin is improvising or had premeditated is less important than the other practicality on the ground. Western allies have (thus far) chosen to not stop him, out of their lack of appetite for conflict, and instead been counting on giving him land and see this whole thing go away. It is a choice on the allies side, not a necessity. This practicality, I see it as a critical and underrecognized aspect of this confrontation.Audacious a land grab Crimea was, he wants more, and western allies have appeared (thus far) okay to give him more. He is going to take as much as they give him. Not unnatural.The question really is how much are they willing to give him? They might give him half of Ukraine actually, or all of it back. No one cares for Ukraine, that is a reality. They might put up with him until he tests borders of NATO directly. They might not see a hazard until then, or not much more hazard between where are now and then.

"when things get difficult, he tends to double down"Former KGB lunatic sociopath with delusions of grandeur surrounded by yes men; with unlimited power, an advanced army, a trillion dollars, and energy galore.I would not be surprised if this ends in a nuclear boom.

Back when the US and others invaded Libya, Putin wrote a long response that clearly indicated his extreme displeasure. It was clear he intended to get even. The war was on. Obama relayed to Putin he could be more flexible if he won the election. What in the world did that mean? Is it true the US/NATO cannot defend Article 5? If so, how did this happen?

Terrible analysis! Putin has a game plan and he is sticking to it. And winning!....Obama, Merkel, Hollande are the ones with no long term strategy..In fact, I don't see even a short term strategy...But Obama will set his red line and the Russians will not dare cross it...I suspect it is somewhere around Chesapeake Bay....

For most Russians, President Putin among them, an independent Ukraine should never happened; it should be always a part of Russia. This is the clear objective of stirring revolt in the Eastern Ukraine; any pretext is good. If there is any improvisation, it is in picking up the best pretext.

" What was a credible rationale for the most audacious European land-grab since World War II? Why on Earth would Moscow want to take over a money pit like Crimea?". Because of the the fear to lose the main naval base of Russian navy: it is as simple as that. Nationalist pro-western government in Kiev would have deprived Russia of that base in a matter of months.

Maybe Obama could entice/bribe him with a Tesla.

First, Mr. Putin is a jujitsu master, and in order to be one, he instinctively needs to think ahead about the moves of his opponents.Second, as an intelligence officer Putin would not advance, if he did not have strategic thinking deep in his blood.Third, the recent release of a secret plan formed before the fall of Yanukovych proves that there was no improvisation in any Putin actions regarding Ukraine. There is a strategy of destroying Ukraine as an independent country and capturing as much as possible of its territory.Conclusion: there is no improvisation in actions of Mr. Putin.Mr. Weiss is just one of many western experts who knows a lot about Russia but understands very little.

My so-called "BS" happens to be history... and it is hard to refute history. Isn't it?

"Mr. Putin narrowed his circle of advisers even further, putting the Kremlin on a de facto war footing and limiting those truly in the know to longtime associates with similar backgrounds in intelligence and military operations."As humans we all tend to underestimate risk when we feel in control, and over estimate risk when we are not - say driving a car versus flying in a plane.Similarly, as Putin exercises more control he will grossly underestimate risk taken in his actions. Our problem in the West, is our leaders have very little control and thus they tend to over estimate risk in considerations of actions to be taken.Our dithering is based on Russia's "nuclear threat" and Purtin's boldness is based on his sense of personal control that he exerts within his inner circle.The concern for me is as Putin has narrowed his circle his assessment of risk taken in his actions is greatly underestimated

Mr. Yanukovych left, their was no coup.

We all know what will happen next.. The fight for Mariupol is just the latest step to form a land bridge between Crimea and what are in reality the Russian territories to the east. The Ukrainian army is tapped out; meanwhile, Russia pumps more and more military equipment into the breakaway territories, and the west won't even supply Ukraine with arms.We can all see how it will end.

The view from Vancouver BC: Putin the despondent KGB agent who laments Gorbachev's unwinding of the evil empire, very much reflects the mindset of the Austrian Corporal with the Charlie Chaplin moustache who could not accept the defeat of the German army and the terms of surrender, which by the way were unduly harsh. The real test of NATO resolve will be when Putin sends his special forces and black ops into the Baltic states. I think our Prime Minister Harper will commit Canadian forces to this treaty obligation. Obama aka Neville Chamberlain who knows?

The best way to deal with Putin is patience. Keep pressure, keep sanctions, keep crude prices low, and in 6 months Putin will sing a different tune. The lower energy prices in Ukraine are helping to offset the costs of the economic turbulence. The good thing is that Russia, Iran and Syria are now in the same boat and subject to similar pressure of low crude prices.

Nice history lesson, Mr. Weiss.Putin - a proven, world-class, psychopathic criminal - is doing his best to bring the free world to its knees.Why is his lying foolery allowed to continue - with Ukraine, with Syria, with Iran, with China (everywhere this jerk walks) - for this long?Negotiate?Why are we talking with him, when we should be sending a message around the world about his real identity, strategies and actions?World leaders, free-world and otherwise, need to closely observe his actions, (past - as you so well-articulated - and present) - gathering all criminal evidence for all people to know - putting an end to his voice, thus putting an end to another world "cancer".The free world - and the warring world - needs to appropriately and for more harshly "deal with" him, and his like, as it would any criminal - now.Or just hope he will quiet down or go away - NOT!

Both Japan and Germany -- no need for Nazi when talking about Germany -- declared war on the the U.S.Incidentally, you did not disagree with my post.

Only a few days after the Kiev government transition in February, the Russian forces oversaw a bloodless change of government in Crimea by sending troops out of their naval base and taking all key points of resistance before anyone could react.

This is an excellent article. Just the other day I remarked on these pages that Putin is not a rational man. That means he's unpredictable, which makes him much more dangerous than someone who can be figured out.To those who say he's not as bad as Hitler or Stalin, I say, "Maybe not yet". Remember, he has thermonuclear weapons.He's also faced with "leaders" who are softer than Chamberlain. Usually I'm fairly optimistic about diplomacy. But there comes a time when tough choices have to be made because diplomacy doesn't work.Is the West hoping that the Russian economy will collapse & Putin will be overthrown? Is that a realistic expectation?

The White House and American media demonized Milosevic in order to justify bombing Serbia. Bill Clinton bombed Serbia to free Kosovo from Serbian oppression. Now, Kosovo is a heroin distribution center for Europe and is ruled by the mob. Kosovo is a failed state.The White House and American media demonized Saddam Hussein in order to justify the Iraq War. George W. Bush invaded Iraq to bring freedom and democracy. He left a legacy of death, destruction and political instability that ISIS exploited. Iraq is a failed stateThen there was Gaddafi. Libya benefited from American intervention to remove Gaddafi and bring freedom. Libya is now a failed state.Obama brought us Yemen which he trumpeted as a success story last August. Yemen is now ruled by Iranian-funded terrorists. Yemen is a failed state.If Putin is a thug, one has to conclude that thugs are less destructive than American presidents who bring freedom to foreign countries.Putin has damaged fewer nations than America has.

Putin is much more dangerous than Gorbachev, and the couple Obama / Angela Merkel much weaker than Reagan / Thatcher so the outcome of this crisis will be much much worst, hopefully we might muddle through until Obama (the Jimmy Carter rencarnation) is gone

A land bridge from Russia to the Crimea is needed. Else, Crimea is an island in need of infrastructure.

In the photo at the head of the article it looks like Putin is working on his new "Magnum" look.(Zooloander)

The history of this situation during 1917-1919 as elaborated in Tooze's book, The Deluge, gives one a useful perspective on the actions of all players in this situation.

“Mr. Putin may be living “in another world,” as German Chancellor Angela Merkel reportedly suggested to President Barrack Obama”… LIKE OBAMA ISN’T?!?!

President Putin maybe profoundly irrational, still he’s more than a match for President Obama.