In the last 24 hours, the filmmakers behind Boyhood, Birdman and A Most Violent Year have had a lot to celebrate. Boyhood walked away from the New York Film Critics Circle with three top prizes—for film, director Richard Linklater and actress Patricia Arquette. Meanwhile, the Gotham Independent Film Awards crowned Birdman its best feature and Michael Keaton its best actor. (Seriously, how could the Gothams resist awarding film’s first Batman? Keaton went with the joke, quipping, “It’s good to be back home.”) Then there’s A Most Violent Year, which isn’t on most Oscar predictors’ lists—but was named best picture of the year by the National Board of Review anyway.
So, does this mean Boyhood, Birdman, and A Most Violent Year are the frontrunners in the Oscar race? Not exactly.