Oscar race is crowded for best picture, screenplay

December 10, 2014 1:10 PM

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Analysis: Confession: I'm cheating here, listing 10 movies, even though with the tortured math the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences uses with its preferential voting system, it's likely a maximum of nine movies can be nominated. (That's been the total for the best picture field the last three years since the rules changed allowing up to 10 nominees.) At this point, there are probably only 13 movies with a legitimate chance to be nominated. I'd like to see "Wild" in that group, but if it can't make it with the Spirit Awards voters, it doesn't have much of a shot here.

I'll save the case for "Boyhood" being the inevitable best picture winner for another time. (Short version: Voters love the movie and its back story. And actors - the academy's biggest group of voters - really dig the 12-year process behind making it. They can't stop talking about it - and wishing t...

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