March Madness and the Awesome Challenge of Betting

March 20, 2015 2:49 PM

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March Madness and the Awesome Challenge of Betting

The National Collegiate Athletic Association men’s basketball tournament has become one of America’s most widely wagered sporting events, but a January research paper found that neither confidence in one’s predictions nor self-assessed knowledge of basketball translated into betting success.

Worse, the researcher was able to beat the average participant’s picks by using coin tosses. The author of the paper, Dae Hee Kwak, a professor of sports management at the University of Michigan, says that the findings exemplify a well-known phenomenon in gaming: the illusion of control. The classic...

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