But the market is still challenging the Fed. The dot plot from the March meeting showed that Fed officials on average expect the overnight rate to be 1.9% at the end of 2017 and 3.0 at the end of 2018. In the most recent surveys, the median forecast of primary dealers and market participants was for a rate of 1.63% at the end of 2017. Primary dealers foresee 2.65% at the end of 2018, while the broader group foresees 2.44%.
In materials released by the Fed with its interest-rate announcement today, the Fed pushed down its estimate of rates in the future to 1.6% in 2017 and 2.4% in 2018. Which means the Fed has adopted the view market participants had taken in its April survey.