After Donald Trump’s month of gains, he hasn’t yet matched Hillary Clinton’s electoral advantage

September 22, 2016 4:04 PM

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The low point of Donald Trump's campaign so far came about a week after the conclusion of the Democratic convention. His mediocre convention was followed by Hillary Clinton's successful one, which was followed by Trump's fight with the family of a Muslim servicemember who was killed in Iraq. By August 8, Trump trailed Clinton by 8 points in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. Since then, he has steadily climbed back, thanks in part to undecided voters coming on board and thanks in part to Clinton's support fading a bit.

I have found that the most informative benchmark for measuring Trump's success is by comparing it to Mitt Romney's. Romney lost in 2012, of course, so Trump must win at least a few of the states that Romney lost in order to pass the 270-electoral-vote threshold. Which states he needs to win is a bit...

Also read: AP-NORC Poll: Majority approve of Trump's North Korea effort

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